Discussion about this post

User's avatar
The Fringe Finance Report's avatar

Great article.

If you are correct and Poland is the next powerhouse in Europe, then a country ETF might be interesting. I just took a quick look at the country ETF iShares MSCI Poland ETF (EPOL). The P/E ratio is just shy of 13. Looks attractive. I also like that Poland still has its own currency vs. being part of the Euro. I added Poland to my research list.

On a side note, I have been to Germany, Japan, and South Korea many times (not yet to Poland), and I have seen it first-hand what you wrote about. Japan and Germany remind me (sadly - as I like both countries) of the old quote, "Success can lead to complacency, and complacency is the greatest enemy of success."

Expand full comment
Silesianus's avatar

Polish rise to prominence, in some respects, is a story of a country that is rising in spite of, not necessarily because, of government intervention. It must be stated that for decades, Polish economy was driven by foreign investment, largely because of lack of national champions that had sufficient capital of their own to power themselves above the foreign competition - something that an aggressive industrial policy of S.K achieved ( a lot of state industries were sold on the cheap in the 1990s, and it was seen as a betrayal of the national industrial policy for a long time in Poland). However, through integration with Western markets, Poland was able to leverage its highly skilled population to grow these businesses. Orlen is now a flagship business for the country's energy sector, and a largest company of its sector in Central/Eastern Europe. CD Project is a strong cultural and digital presence as well, and a multitude of niche white goods manufacturers that are benefitting from a gap in Western Europe's own manufacturing of this kind. Addition of logistic hubs, IT and Polish ability to work in Western economies without a hitch mean that Poland is perhaps close to an end of history of catching up that dogged its existence in the past several centuries.

The geopolitical alignment with America is a sheer necessity, where Western Europe is both unwilling and unable to support Polish ambitions to the degree that the current trajectory of the country demands. I am somewhat reluctant on this connection, but in absence of other geopolitical partners that are willing to let Poland expand (Germany was never keen on it, French attitudes have always been mercurial and Russia as a partner is a conversation of a different kind, if even feasible), the Atlantic connection is the only one that will allow the country to assert itself and perhaps, continue to take on leading role on the Continent. Who knows, maybe the renaissance of Europe as a power will happen under leadership of Warsaw? An amusing prospect for now, but not unrealistic with passing of time.

Expand full comment
22 more comments...

No posts