Excellent piece, as Doomberg has written many times, politics has been the bottleneck all along, not geology. It's interesting, one of the things the Trump administration has been doing. that gets far less press is the overturning of environmental regulations that will reduce the scope of the constant lawsuits from climate organizations whose goal is simply to waste time and drive the cost of production higher accordingly. if those organizations no longer have standing to sue, more positive energy outcomes are virtually guaranteed.
But you also highlight the different property rights issue between the US and Europe, and that is a much tougher issue to overcome.
Alas, I suspect that reliability and security of energy resources will need to degrade far further before any political changes are possible.
I love that image showing the gas basin reserves across Europe—I had no idea. They are currently inaccessible due to a lack of political will (as you said), but as the old saying goes, “things stay the same until they don’t.”
Redirecting renewable subsidies to fund domestic gas production—100% agree, but it might be easier to convert Europe to Hinduism than to get them to let go of that secular religion. But I hope I’m wrong.
Well done, you have got to the core of the problem that The Energy Realists of Australia have been trying to explain for years. Independent Australian observers discovered prolonged, severe and continent-wide wind droughts which the official meteorologists never bothered to mention.
Never mind that major Dunkelflautes have been observed on the oil and gas platforms in the North Sea for sixty years. Germany and Britain bet the farm on wind power and now they are doubling down to try even harder
You have found why trillions have been spent worldwide on the energy transition and the outcomes are more expensive and less reliable power with catastrophic damage to forests and farmlands.
Its all about wind droughts, the ABC of intermittent energy and the weakest links in the chain, like the lowest point of the dam, fence or flood levee, and the slowest ship in the convoy.
In this case, windless nights are the weak links.
The combination of wind droughts and the lack of grid-scale storage guarantees that there will not be a transition to wind and solar because the ‘unreliables’ are simply not fit for purpose to power a post-industrial society.
It’s as simple as ABC.
A: The grid must have continuous input from generators to meet the demand, second by second.
B: The continuity of wind and solar input is broken at night when there is little or no wind.
C: Storage at the scale required to bridge the gaps is not feasible or affordable with current technology.
Limited wind means limited wind power. At night, if we depend on wind and solar, wind droughts will turn out the lights and everything else that runs on electricity.
Dirt farmers are alert to the threat of rain droughts, but the meteorologists never issued wind drought warnings, and the wind farmers and their sponsors in government apparently didn’t check.
The good news is that Paul Burgess is now telling the wind drought story in a hypnotic presentation, adding to his amazing collection of climate and energy materials.
The power supplies of the west are in diabolical trouble. Even in the US, power prices are rising and there is a looming shortfall of dispatchable power.
They are finding that installed capacity of wind and solar aint’t necessarily real capacity, like some oils ain’t oils. https://youtu.be/c7TUiMCeils 40 seconds.
Great article, a Left-Brain outlier amidst right-brain rainbow chasing NGOs and no-brain Brussels. It seems like there are additional reserves in the Ioanian/East-Med under EU members states' EEZ, as well as the obvious solution of bringing Libyan gas back online, with the added benefit of stabilizing the country to cut down on migrant routes.
Very good piece. One would think that pointing out the obvious, that Europe’s problems (which are many, including mass immigration of people who have no interest in assimilating, and a lack of reliable, affordable, for example) would lead the Europeans to rethink their naive, childlike approach to reality. Alas, their stubborn refusal to live in the real world does not bode well for its future.
If the Europeans are not going to progress domestic gas production, and for now at least the environmental and political hurdles seem insurmountable (this could easily change if US supply becomes shaky - the eventual reversal in the Japanese ban on nuclear power being a similar case in point), they at least need to do two things:
1) Build more gas storage
2) Remember to fill the storage coming into winter (unlike this year)
Great piece, Brawl and I too enjoyed the energy basin image you presented. The annoying fact is that most of society's (developed society) energy troubles are solvable (albiet with situational hurdles as you mentioned in the piece). At the moment, the political class, and by extension their voting base, does not have the desire to implement those solutions. Eventually there will be a tipping point, but the catalyst is unknowable. Cheers!
If only European politicians weren't so ideologically captured, and Europe chose redirect renewable subsidies toward domestic gas security, we'd be less dependent on external sources. Maybe one day in our lifetimes.
European self-sufficiency in energy is achievable, but as you point out, obstacles would need to be overcome. Ideally, the ramp up in gas production would help to cover transition to a nucelar-heavy energy mix, just as is in France today, amd what Germany is slowly realising should not have been dismantled.
Arguably this means dependency on external uranium, however fuel reprocessing is already available in France (what a surprise!), so further development in that direction would set Europe in a position of energy security.
Ah, I didn’t know that. Goes to show, Europe is a story of a continuous neglect and managed decline. Solutions are out there, but we are binding ourselves for no useful purpose.
Europe must restart, rebuild, or restore inactive coal and fuel oil electrical generation and heating, until fission nuclear power can be built in This should include a ban on heat pumps for domestic heat, unless electrical co-generation is supplied by the user.
Question regarding the earthquakes, are we referring to damaging life threatening quakes, or minor sub 5 Richter scale quakes. It's pretty common for seismic activity in oil extraction areas, but rarely anything serious.
Excellent piece, as Doomberg has written many times, politics has been the bottleneck all along, not geology. It's interesting, one of the things the Trump administration has been doing. that gets far less press is the overturning of environmental regulations that will reduce the scope of the constant lawsuits from climate organizations whose goal is simply to waste time and drive the cost of production higher accordingly. if those organizations no longer have standing to sue, more positive energy outcomes are virtually guaranteed.
But you also highlight the different property rights issue between the US and Europe, and that is a much tougher issue to overcome.
Alas, I suspect that reliability and security of energy resources will need to degrade far further before any political changes are possible.
Thank you! I also don’t believe that change will occur anytime soon. But that only makes discussing what’s possible and needed more necessary.
Great article.
I love that image showing the gas basin reserves across Europe—I had no idea. They are currently inaccessible due to a lack of political will (as you said), but as the old saying goes, “things stay the same until they don’t.”
Redirecting renewable subsidies to fund domestic gas production—100% agree, but it might be easier to convert Europe to Hinduism than to get them to let go of that secular religion. But I hope I’m wrong.
Thank you! The fact there’s a Ganesha temple in Berlin gives me hope, though :)
well, it appears they are trying to convert themselves to Islam already
😂
😆
Great point!
HA!
Well done, you have got to the core of the problem that The Energy Realists of Australia have been trying to explain for years. Independent Australian observers discovered prolonged, severe and continent-wide wind droughts which the official meteorologists never bothered to mention.
Never mind that major Dunkelflautes have been observed on the oil and gas platforms in the North Sea for sixty years. Germany and Britain bet the farm on wind power and now they are doubling down to try even harder
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/a-curious-tale-of-the-north-sea-winds/
https://rafechampion.substack.com/p/the-sinister-threat-of-wind-droughts
You have found why trillions have been spent worldwide on the energy transition and the outcomes are more expensive and less reliable power with catastrophic damage to forests and farmlands.
Its all about wind droughts, the ABC of intermittent energy and the weakest links in the chain, like the lowest point of the dam, fence or flood levee, and the slowest ship in the convoy.
In this case, windless nights are the weak links.
The combination of wind droughts and the lack of grid-scale storage guarantees that there will not be a transition to wind and solar because the ‘unreliables’ are simply not fit for purpose to power a post-industrial society.
It’s as simple as ABC.
A: The grid must have continuous input from generators to meet the demand, second by second.
B: The continuity of wind and solar input is broken at night when there is little or no wind.
C: Storage at the scale required to bridge the gaps is not feasible or affordable with current technology.
Limited wind means limited wind power. At night, if we depend on wind and solar, wind droughts will turn out the lights and everything else that runs on electricity.
Dirt farmers are alert to the threat of rain droughts, but the meteorologists never issued wind drought warnings, and the wind farmers and their sponsors in government apparently didn’t check.
https://rafechampion.substack.com/p/losing-the-war-on-co2
The good news is that Paul Burgess is now telling the wind drought story in a hypnotic presentation, adding to his amazing collection of climate and energy materials.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-180089713
The insistence to double down on this is truly mind boggling.
Years ago I thought we might have reached peak stupid in climate and energy but I have been proved wrong many times. This is just the latest episode.
Maybe the revelation of wind droughts Paul Burgess will help by taking the wind drought story into the northern hemisphere.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-180089713
Great article.
Thanks very much for sharing this.
Thank you for reading!
Thanks for this breakdown of the "what if" scenario. Highly informative, and as mentioned, great map of the most relevant gas regions of Europe.
Thank you! Appreciate you reading!
SIMPLIFY THE GRID!
Get wind and solar off the grid as quickly as possible .
https://rafechampion.substack.com/p/its-time-to-simplify-the-grid
The power supplies of the west are in diabolical trouble. Even in the US, power prices are rising and there is a looming shortfall of dispatchable power.
They are finding that installed capacity of wind and solar aint’t necessarily real capacity, like some oils ain’t oils. https://youtu.be/c7TUiMCeils 40 seconds.
Great article, a Left-Brain outlier amidst right-brain rainbow chasing NGOs and no-brain Brussels. It seems like there are additional reserves in the Ioanian/East-Med under EU members states' EEZ, as well as the obvious solution of bringing Libyan gas back online, with the added benefit of stabilizing the country to cut down on migrant routes.
Thank you! The role of energy to create stability in places like Libya is definitely an interesting and underexplored angle.
Very good piece. One would think that pointing out the obvious, that Europe’s problems (which are many, including mass immigration of people who have no interest in assimilating, and a lack of reliable, affordable, for example) would lead the Europeans to rethink their naive, childlike approach to reality. Alas, their stubborn refusal to live in the real world does not bode well for its future.
Thank you! I agree, naivety is available in abundance here.
If the Europeans are not going to progress domestic gas production, and for now at least the environmental and political hurdles seem insurmountable (this could easily change if US supply becomes shaky - the eventual reversal in the Japanese ban on nuclear power being a similar case in point), they at least need to do two things:
1) Build more gas storage
2) Remember to fill the storage coming into winter (unlike this year)
Great piece, Brawl and I too enjoyed the energy basin image you presented. The annoying fact is that most of society's (developed society) energy troubles are solvable (albiet with situational hurdles as you mentioned in the piece). At the moment, the political class, and by extension their voting base, does not have the desire to implement those solutions. Eventually there will be a tipping point, but the catalyst is unknowable. Cheers!
Appreciate the kind words! Let’s hope that catalyst will show up before the damage is irreversible.
Great piece!
If only European politicians weren't so ideologically captured, and Europe chose redirect renewable subsidies toward domestic gas security, we'd be less dependent on external sources. Maybe one day in our lifetimes.
Thank you! There’s always hope…
European self-sufficiency in energy is achievable, but as you point out, obstacles would need to be overcome. Ideally, the ramp up in gas production would help to cover transition to a nucelar-heavy energy mix, just as is in France today, amd what Germany is slowly realising should not have been dismantled.
Arguably this means dependency on external uranium, however fuel reprocessing is already available in France (what a surprise!), so further development in that direction would set Europe in a position of energy security.
Ironically, Urenco is still running a uranium enrichment facility in Germany too.
Ah, I didn’t know that. Goes to show, Europe is a story of a continuous neglect and managed decline. Solutions are out there, but we are binding ourselves for no useful purpose.
Perhaps a better solution would be to reverse the suicidal war of needlessly antagonising your indispensable neighbour?
Both approaches aren’t mutually exclusive.
Not at all, but the costs and risks involved with my option are considerably less - only a little humble pie.
Europe must restart, rebuild, or restore inactive coal and fuel oil electrical generation and heating, until fission nuclear power can be built in This should include a ban on heat pumps for domestic heat, unless electrical co-generation is supplied by the user.
Really appreciate this reminder that a system built to work well on ordinary days is going to disappoint when conditions turn difficult
Question regarding the earthquakes, are we referring to damaging life threatening quakes, or minor sub 5 Richter scale quakes. It's pretty common for seismic activity in oil extraction areas, but rarely anything serious.