The sanctions already broke Londons monopoly on maritime insurance. At some point someone will have to explain to me why Ukraine not being in NATO was worse than upending...everything
Regarding aviation technology, I wonder if the Buruvestnik powerplant could be scaled up to passenger aircraft. That was my major takeaway from the test last month. I suppose we would see it first on a bomber aircraft but the implications are significant, to put it mildly
Spot on. I don't know enough about Buruvestnik to comment there. But maritime insurance is such a great example. I worked on the financial modeling side for monoline insurance company in NYC for a bit. On a high-level, insurance is not a complicated business. The tough part is raising capital and writing your policies in a way that protects your capital, and navigating the regulatory landscape. Difficult challenges to overcome for private actors. Not a problem at all for a state actor (BRICS). We upended everything (maritime insurance and beyond), and the final bill is yet to come in years to come. No strategic foresight.
Military engines are designed for different requirements. There are examples of using them as basis of civil aviation engines, see the Vulcan bomber and the Concorde but it's rare, as far as I know.
Nuclear powered aircraft with engines manufactured along the lines of burevestnik may well be possible, but they will never work for the same reason the nuclear powered cargo ships didn't work: nobody let them use their ports. City authorities will be simply too paranoid to let a nuclear reactor fly into their airport, and it's hard not to agree when there's a major plane crash every other month, or so it seems.
Upending everything was the point. The effect of any policy over time is the true policy.
Europe is smashed and weak, the Atlantic is safe - for America- and Europe our 🇺🇸 Eastern Flank is secure. All Euro rapprochement with Russia and worse China buying up Europe is ended, stunted and reversed. Hostility works better for our 🇺🇸 rebuilding industry and our military- without dependence on China.
If we can’t have Europe loyal we can have Europe weak. As an aside England has some deep hostility to Russia for reasons not clear to me.
We don’t care about Ukraine, or clearly you. We care about ourselves and the Atlantic, and worry about China. Europe was too close with China, cuz money. Now far less.
It’s the oceans, the Anglo Americans and the others are island peoples.
We’re Sea people’s.
The Atlantic approaches are World War I, the Atlantic and Pacific are World War II. That we 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇦🇺🇨🇦🇳🇿react this way to any approach however sly to the Oceans is our common policy for 500 years.
Really a constant reliable as the tides.
BRICS to the extent its real or ever will be (and really take Brazil and South Detroit, er South Africa off the list) can work in our 🇺🇸 favor, it reduces the demand for dollars which is quite wearing at times.
I don’t agree with the Ukraine policy but there are the results.
Great article. It powerfully illustrates—for the global aviation sector—what happens when first-order emotional thinking wins the day. Like in Chess, never underestimate the other player and think many, many, many moves ahead if you want to win.
This is precisely why stories of old, like Aesop's fables, Greek mythology, and Shakespeare, remain popular for both investors and the general public: they are masterful studies of the human condition, warts and all.
To understand the horrible and destructive consequences of envy and jealousy, look no further than Othello. To see how one can make a dreaded future come true through unwise and unethical acts, read what happened to King Laius in the story of Oedipus. Or why one should be careful with hubris, as that invites the punishment of Nemesis.
Correct. Humanity has already faced every type of problem imaginable. Call it cultural ergodicity. Tapping into this knowledge would be the wise thing to do.
You assume that European "leaders" are making sovereign decisions for themselves, and in the interests of their economies and people. This is no more true - and may even be less true - than it was of the European Warsaw Pact "leaders" during the Cold War.
You can bet on one thing though: no one in current western policymaking is looking forward, as proven by this little fact in aviation (and many others like payment systems for ex.).
The only ones I can currently see to do any forward-looking would be strategically the US and some APAC states like Japan, Korea, Australia - who are beholden to the US however in many ways.
I'd even argue the current EU politicians don't even look far enough to cover their legislatures currently - as proven by this very fact on sanctions across the board, which all spectacularly only hurt their own people, yet everyone is still in office mostly, doubling down.
How would the same people find the ability to have something like "remorse"?
I'd put money on the fact that most of the current actors would probably rather harbor a deep resent to how the world "wronged them despite their great intent and legislature". If and once their policies cave in on themselves and BRICS emerges as a powerful third player on the global stage it would be anyone's fault, but theirs. They'll make up some new bogeyman if they have to besides "Russians" and "Climate Change". There's a think tank out there that is mercenary enough to sell them a new playbook for a few million.
The BRICS block is currently working to complete a full economic chain: own resources, separate production & supply chains (this one you can already cross off the list), patenting & licensing (as in this aviation cert system) and lastly, payments (already done) and monetary system (on its way) to ensure cashflow and secure, quick payments.
Since it looks likely the globe is split apart far enough through all the fear mongering and partisan news cycle (you're either "for the good" or "the bad" - there's no nuance to anything), they'll likely succeed.
And the collective west will have made "its own monster" they can then lament later down the road.
So true. If you look at our leaders in the west across the political spectrum, how many would pass even the beginner level of leadership “my leader deeply cares on improving the lives of its citizen”. They all seem to focus on other things.
For every country I have 2 simple metrics, beyond the "-ism" game, that I track to gauge that.
1. How easy does the system make it for driven people (entrepreneurs, etc.) to succeed, and
2. Is the life of the bottom 50% improving year after year?
If they had polls to confirm them in office I'm sure 50% of them would be regularly booted - if people even cared enough to participate, another sign of a deteriorating "democracy" = voter participation.
Your two key metrics I'd agree upon (especially 1. is a key driver of lack of innovation in core EU).
The good old gini coefficient being an effective long-term third one to measure if wage participation translates to any wealth. Gini is pretty abysmal in my books for most EU countries (most of them, even rich Switzerland which I do not count in EU) are hovering around the 75-80% mark, showing how the top 1-10% funnel most of the economic gains in their pockets and are able to build wealth - most of "big wealth" also is inherited nowadays anway, just a function of time and asset distribution with lots of "immovable" assets being handed down. Belgium is still leading the "more equality" pack - also by achieving high ownership of housing (like NL, but better).
Income / wage growth has been stagnant basically anywhere in the west since ca. 1970, and accelerated in 2008, despite a bit of "inflationary catch-up" in 2020.
I'd basically say that's why the western complex currently is approaching its "jig is up" moment.
In regards to the Russian aviation sector in April 2022 the United States FAA downgraded the safety rating for Russian aviation. Since that time the number of Russian airline accidents has increased. The cumbersome political patronage system in Russia, which has negatively affected their armed forces, can be expected to also negatively impact their aviation sector.
I remember this particular disaster in Russia in the early 2000s where the airplane was maintained by car mechanics. Can Russia create a self-sustaining aviation industry with infrastructure and maintanance? I have doubts. Interesting conversation, thank you all.
This is a sharp illustration of how sanctions have become a textbook case of strategic self-harm for the West. By weaponizing aviation access, Brussels and Washington have forced Russia (and now India and others) to invest in a parallel ecosystem that no longer needs FAA/EASA endorsement.
The additional risk for the West is that once BRICS and Global South regulators normalize their own certification regimes, this logic will inevitably spill over into insurance, financing, MRO and training standards. At that point, its not just airframes that bifurcate, but the entire value chain. Moreover, Western leverage over "global rules" evaporates. In trying to deny Russia a seat at the table, the West may be accelerating the construction of an entirely new table.
Your piece is outstanding. You managed to turn a highly technical shift into something clear, structured, and readable without losing depth. It is rare to see someone connect operations, politics, certification regimes, and long haul economics with this level of precision.
What stands out most is how you reveal the larger mechanism behind the Russia case. The collapse of the Europe Asia corridor is not just a routing issue. It marks the beginning of the end of a universal aviation language. Once standards stop being shared, the sky fractures into blocs and the industry starts operating with structural friction. That reshapes price, margin, autonomy, and the very map of power.
The SJ 100 is a detail. The real movement is the erosion of single authority airworthiness. Europe feels it first, emerging markets gain leverage, and the BRICS sphere begins to assemble institutional redundancy that used to look impossible.
Your work makes this transition unmistakably clear. It is analysis that elevates the conversation and forces a more serious look at where the global system is heading.
The West is continually showing itself to be unable to make any type of policy change that doesn’t harm itself. Sanctions have failed time and time again. Sanctions are as effective as stopping teenagers from having sex! Never going to happen! Russia has a deep bench from what I’m observing.
Good read, thank you. I wonder if Russia is capable of making engines as good as the West? I am a fan of Russian military aviation and space stuff but I doubt they can compete with Rolls Royce et al. What do you think?
Thank you! Sanctions tend to act as strong forcing functions. They push investment and talent into areas previously neglected. And if the certification regime does split, Russia doesn’t need to match Rolls-Royce etc. A parallel system could lock Western engine makers out of a growing BRICS market, where “good enough” becomes commercially viable.
Fascinating reading. And one thinks of EMBRAER, one of the world’s aerospace industry leaders, operating in the Commercial Aviation, Executive Jets, Defense & Security, and Services & Support segments… from Brazil (first letter B! in brics)
Sounds like we'll be adding a new level of aviation supply and cost: with private jets at the top, Western built and certified in the middle, and BRICS built and certified on the bottom. I already know which layer I won't put my family on.
hiii i just wrote an article speaking on the issues in the credit market and stress growing for families. I would love to know your opinion on it and maybe we could follow or subscribe to each other
The sanctions already broke Londons monopoly on maritime insurance. At some point someone will have to explain to me why Ukraine not being in NATO was worse than upending...everything
Regarding aviation technology, I wonder if the Buruvestnik powerplant could be scaled up to passenger aircraft. That was my major takeaway from the test last month. I suppose we would see it first on a bomber aircraft but the implications are significant, to put it mildly
Spot on. I don't know enough about Buruvestnik to comment there. But maritime insurance is such a great example. I worked on the financial modeling side for monoline insurance company in NYC for a bit. On a high-level, insurance is not a complicated business. The tough part is raising capital and writing your policies in a way that protects your capital, and navigating the regulatory landscape. Difficult challenges to overcome for private actors. Not a problem at all for a state actor (BRICS). We upended everything (maritime insurance and beyond), and the final bill is yet to come in years to come. No strategic foresight.
Military engines are designed for different requirements. There are examples of using them as basis of civil aviation engines, see the Vulcan bomber and the Concorde but it's rare, as far as I know.
Spoiler alert: it wasn’t worth it ;)
And yes, Buruvestnik is truly fascinating.
Nuclear powered aircraft with engines manufactured along the lines of burevestnik may well be possible, but they will never work for the same reason the nuclear powered cargo ships didn't work: nobody let them use their ports. City authorities will be simply too paranoid to let a nuclear reactor fly into their airport, and it's hard not to agree when there's a major plane crash every other month, or so it seems.
Agreed.
Upending everything was the point. The effect of any policy over time is the true policy.
Europe is smashed and weak, the Atlantic is safe - for America- and Europe our 🇺🇸 Eastern Flank is secure. All Euro rapprochement with Russia and worse China buying up Europe is ended, stunted and reversed. Hostility works better for our 🇺🇸 rebuilding industry and our military- without dependence on China.
If we can’t have Europe loyal we can have Europe weak. As an aside England has some deep hostility to Russia for reasons not clear to me.
We don’t care about Ukraine, or clearly you. We care about ourselves and the Atlantic, and worry about China. Europe was too close with China, cuz money. Now far less.
It’s the oceans, the Anglo Americans and the others are island peoples.
We’re Sea people’s.
The Atlantic approaches are World War I, the Atlantic and Pacific are World War II. That we 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇦🇺🇨🇦🇳🇿react this way to any approach however sly to the Oceans is our common policy for 500 years.
Really a constant reliable as the tides.
BRICS to the extent its real or ever will be (and really take Brazil and South Detroit, er South Africa off the list) can work in our 🇺🇸 favor, it reduces the demand for dollars which is quite wearing at times.
I don’t agree with the Ukraine policy but there are the results.
Great article. It powerfully illustrates—for the global aviation sector—what happens when first-order emotional thinking wins the day. Like in Chess, never underestimate the other player and think many, many, many moves ahead if you want to win.
This is precisely why stories of old, like Aesop's fables, Greek mythology, and Shakespeare, remain popular for both investors and the general public: they are masterful studies of the human condition, warts and all.
To understand the horrible and destructive consequences of envy and jealousy, look no further than Othello. To see how one can make a dreaded future come true through unwise and unethical acts, read what happened to King Laius in the story of Oedipus. Or why one should be careful with hubris, as that invites the punishment of Nemesis.
Correct. Humanity has already faced every type of problem imaginable. Call it cultural ergodicity. Tapping into this knowledge would be the wise thing to do.
You assume that European "leaders" are making sovereign decisions for themselves, and in the interests of their economies and people. This is no more true - and may even be less true - than it was of the European Warsaw Pact "leaders" during the Cold War.
This guy gets it.
You can bet on one thing though: no one in current western policymaking is looking forward, as proven by this little fact in aviation (and many others like payment systems for ex.).
The only ones I can currently see to do any forward-looking would be strategically the US and some APAC states like Japan, Korea, Australia - who are beholden to the US however in many ways.
I'd even argue the current EU politicians don't even look far enough to cover their legislatures currently - as proven by this very fact on sanctions across the board, which all spectacularly only hurt their own people, yet everyone is still in office mostly, doubling down.
How would the same people find the ability to have something like "remorse"?
I'd put money on the fact that most of the current actors would probably rather harbor a deep resent to how the world "wronged them despite their great intent and legislature". If and once their policies cave in on themselves and BRICS emerges as a powerful third player on the global stage it would be anyone's fault, but theirs. They'll make up some new bogeyman if they have to besides "Russians" and "Climate Change". There's a think tank out there that is mercenary enough to sell them a new playbook for a few million.
The BRICS block is currently working to complete a full economic chain: own resources, separate production & supply chains (this one you can already cross off the list), patenting & licensing (as in this aviation cert system) and lastly, payments (already done) and monetary system (on its way) to ensure cashflow and secure, quick payments.
Since it looks likely the globe is split apart far enough through all the fear mongering and partisan news cycle (you're either "for the good" or "the bad" - there's no nuance to anything), they'll likely succeed.
And the collective west will have made "its own monster" they can then lament later down the road.
When the next bogeyman is identified, the Ukraine crisis will be officially over.
So true. If you look at our leaders in the west across the political spectrum, how many would pass even the beginner level of leadership “my leader deeply cares on improving the lives of its citizen”. They all seem to focus on other things.
For every country I have 2 simple metrics, beyond the "-ism" game, that I track to gauge that.
1. How easy does the system make it for driven people (entrepreneurs, etc.) to succeed, and
2. Is the life of the bottom 50% improving year after year?
If they had polls to confirm them in office I'm sure 50% of them would be regularly booted - if people even cared enough to participate, another sign of a deteriorating "democracy" = voter participation.
Your two key metrics I'd agree upon (especially 1. is a key driver of lack of innovation in core EU).
The good old gini coefficient being an effective long-term third one to measure if wage participation translates to any wealth. Gini is pretty abysmal in my books for most EU countries (most of them, even rich Switzerland which I do not count in EU) are hovering around the 75-80% mark, showing how the top 1-10% funnel most of the economic gains in their pockets and are able to build wealth - most of "big wealth" also is inherited nowadays anway, just a function of time and asset distribution with lots of "immovable" assets being handed down. Belgium is still leading the "more equality" pack - also by achieving high ownership of housing (like NL, but better).
Income / wage growth has been stagnant basically anywhere in the west since ca. 1970, and accelerated in 2008, despite a bit of "inflationary catch-up" in 2020.
I'd basically say that's why the western complex currently is approaching its "jig is up" moment.
In regards to the Russian aviation sector in April 2022 the United States FAA downgraded the safety rating for Russian aviation. Since that time the number of Russian airline accidents has increased. The cumbersome political patronage system in Russia, which has negatively affected their armed forces, can be expected to also negatively impact their aviation sector.
Sounds plausible.
I remember this particular disaster in Russia in the early 2000s where the airplane was maintained by car mechanics. Can Russia create a self-sustaining aviation industry with infrastructure and maintanance? I have doubts. Interesting conversation, thank you all.
This is a sharp illustration of how sanctions have become a textbook case of strategic self-harm for the West. By weaponizing aviation access, Brussels and Washington have forced Russia (and now India and others) to invest in a parallel ecosystem that no longer needs FAA/EASA endorsement.
The additional risk for the West is that once BRICS and Global South regulators normalize their own certification regimes, this logic will inevitably spill over into insurance, financing, MRO and training standards. At that point, its not just airframes that bifurcate, but the entire value chain. Moreover, Western leverage over "global rules" evaporates. In trying to deny Russia a seat at the table, the West may be accelerating the construction of an entirely new table.
Indeed.
Your piece is outstanding. You managed to turn a highly technical shift into something clear, structured, and readable without losing depth. It is rare to see someone connect operations, politics, certification regimes, and long haul economics with this level of precision.
What stands out most is how you reveal the larger mechanism behind the Russia case. The collapse of the Europe Asia corridor is not just a routing issue. It marks the beginning of the end of a universal aviation language. Once standards stop being shared, the sky fractures into blocs and the industry starts operating with structural friction. That reshapes price, margin, autonomy, and the very map of power.
The SJ 100 is a detail. The real movement is the erosion of single authority airworthiness. Europe feels it first, emerging markets gain leverage, and the BRICS sphere begins to assemble institutional redundancy that used to look impossible.
Your work makes this transition unmistakably clear. It is analysis that elevates the conversation and forces a more serious look at where the global system is heading.
Really appreciate this. Thanks for reading and for the thoughtful feedback!
The West is continually showing itself to be unable to make any type of policy change that doesn’t harm itself. Sanctions have failed time and time again. Sanctions are as effective as stopping teenagers from having sex! Never going to happen! Russia has a deep bench from what I’m observing.
Great analogy!
Bloody marvellous!
Thank you! 🙏
I was unaware of this, thanks for sharing your expertise
Glad to be of assistance!
Great read, thank you.
🫡
Good read, thank you. I wonder if Russia is capable of making engines as good as the West? I am a fan of Russian military aviation and space stuff but I doubt they can compete with Rolls Royce et al. What do you think?
Thank you! Sanctions tend to act as strong forcing functions. They push investment and talent into areas previously neglected. And if the certification regime does split, Russia doesn’t need to match Rolls-Royce etc. A parallel system could lock Western engine makers out of a growing BRICS market, where “good enough” becomes commercially viable.
Sanctions forcing innovation is a great point. There is tremendous amount of industrial and intellectual capital in Russia. Will see.
Dream on
What do you mean? Is this supposed to be a sarcastic comment? I genuinly have no clue what you mean.
Fascinating reading. And one thinks of EMBRAER, one of the world’s aerospace industry leaders, operating in the Commercial Aviation, Executive Jets, Defense & Security, and Services & Support segments… from Brazil (first letter B! in brics)
Thank you! And yes, Embraer will likely benefit from all this.
Thank you for the brilliant article, Brawl!
Always a pleasure!
Sounds like we'll be adding a new level of aviation supply and cost: with private jets at the top, Western built and certified in the middle, and BRICS built and certified on the bottom. I already know which layer I won't put my family on.
That’s the likely outcome.
hiii i just wrote an article speaking on the issues in the credit market and stress growing for families. I would love to know your opinion on it and maybe we could follow or subscribe to each other
https://thefourthturningpoint.substack.com/p/the-delinquency-cycle-why-american?r=64a3r9