YES, it was only a matter of time. Green policy is just grand, until things don't work and go cold, and energy prices increase like mad. Even some politicians start to understand then.
Perhaps what we are really witnessing is not a simple policy error, but a deeper conceit: the belief that human power—political power—can be traded for physics.
Political capital can override price signals. It can accelerate timelines. It can redirect flows of money. But it cannot repeal entropy. It cannot compress a decade of metallurgy into a fiscal quarter. It cannot conjure skilled labor or forgings or rare alloys by proclamation.
For years, the trade seemed rational: exchange the slow discipline of physics for the quick leverage of policy. If the system groaned, subsidize it. If it strained, regulate it. If it resisted, redefine the metrics. The machine kept running, and so the illusion held.
What we are seeing is the outer boundary of that exchange rate—the moment when political horsepower is no longer convertible into mechanical reliability. By the time leaders decide the trade was unfavorable, the damage has already migrated from theory to infrastructure. And infrastructure does not respond to apologies.
Learning about the dispatchability difference between gas and coal was great. Thanks for this article.
For those wondering about Germany, I recently discovered an excellent video presentation by Leen Weijers showing the unbelievable carbon footprint of solar in Germany. Texas is better in comparison, but far higher than most realize. Both are compared to gas. Here is a link.
This hot mess wasn’t built in a day so it won’t be fixed quickly either. But I feel hopeful for a change of direction. Keep up the messaging, people like yourself have a bigger impact than you realize.
Nuisance generation is what is needed to power data processing. Reversing the problem, stand up coal generators to power data centers at 40% capacity, use excess to meet demand, treat waste, and extract syngas from lignite for dispatchable "peaker" generation.
Excess dry steam is an industrial resource. Silly to waste it.
That’s an interesting point. If coal gasification, heat recovery, and demand could be aligned economically, it would amount to a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
Not new, and it isn’t mine. In a truly industrialized civilization systems thinking dominates. Germany pioneered a lot of that technology. Restoring it from now will take the same level of effort as the original creation.
Great article, hope it will be read by as much people as possible.
However, I have 1 question about graph (1st picture) that shows electricity production in Germany. I think that both numbers are wrong, Germany produced about 200 TWh electricity from solar+wind and 106 TWh from coal. Here is my source, just select Germany
Good catch, you’re right. An earlier draft referenced EU-wide figures and that distinction slipped through in the final revision. I’ve corrected it. Appreciate you keeping me honest.
Imagine that. Why not admit the truth and tear down the wind mills, tear up the solar panels, and burn coal and natural gas. Who knows, Europe might even save itself (on the energy/economy side - don’t get me started on the immigration side).
Talking coal reserves, I want to add thst East Germany was the third largest uranium producer globally until 1990. So, we got some other potential as well.
this appears to be the first step in the 'gradually' part of gradually, then suddenly. I fear, however, many Germans alive today may never see the suddenly, when energy sanity returns.
The shift in mainstream media narrative on the true cost of the “transition” over the past 1-2 weeks has been surprising to watch. I try to remain optimistic while preparing for the worst.
Idiocracy meets The Matrix. German energy policy seems to care little for actual humans. And to the extent grid operators upcharge human customers to cover AI data center costs, then humans are just inputs to a computer system. All so people can mostly create AI p*rn and AIs themselves can plot against us.
YES, it was only a matter of time. Green policy is just grand, until things don't work and go cold, and energy prices increase like mad. Even some politicians start to understand then.
Correct. Running on a ticket that says, "we'll make your life worse" isn't a winning proposition.
Great article.
And a hopeful sign that reality-based economic policy might make a comeback in Germany.
Thank you! Now the question is whether that comeback comes before the window closes.
Perhaps what we are really witnessing is not a simple policy error, but a deeper conceit: the belief that human power—political power—can be traded for physics.
Political capital can override price signals. It can accelerate timelines. It can redirect flows of money. But it cannot repeal entropy. It cannot compress a decade of metallurgy into a fiscal quarter. It cannot conjure skilled labor or forgings or rare alloys by proclamation.
For years, the trade seemed rational: exchange the slow discipline of physics for the quick leverage of policy. If the system groaned, subsidize it. If it strained, regulate it. If it resisted, redefine the metrics. The machine kept running, and so the illusion held.
What we are seeing is the outer boundary of that exchange rate—the moment when political horsepower is no longer convertible into mechanical reliability. By the time leaders decide the trade was unfavorable, the damage has already migrated from theory to infrastructure. And infrastructure does not respond to apologies.
Political power traded for physics is a great way to put it. But thermodynamics always wins.
Your article proves that my friend
Learning about the dispatchability difference between gas and coal was great. Thanks for this article.
For those wondering about Germany, I recently discovered an excellent video presentation by Leen Weijers showing the unbelievable carbon footprint of solar in Germany. Texas is better in comparison, but far higher than most realize. Both are compared to gas. Here is a link.
https://substack.com/@wirescrossed/note/p-184619348?r=1we1xi
Thanks for sharing. Looks very interesting, will watch it in full!
A glimmer of hope! Did you catch Marco Rubio at the security conference? He nailed it imo!!!
Rubio's speech was spot on. Thank God for social media, otherwise no one in Europe could watch it in full.
This hot mess wasn’t built in a day so it won’t be fixed quickly either. But I feel hopeful for a change of direction. Keep up the messaging, people like yourself have a bigger impact than you realize.
Appreciate that! Let’s hope the “gradually” phase isn’t so long that the damage takes generations to repair.
Yep, need leadership that understands this energy emergency the greenies have created. And a general public that starts demanding change!!
Nuisance generation is what is needed to power data processing. Reversing the problem, stand up coal generators to power data centers at 40% capacity, use excess to meet demand, treat waste, and extract syngas from lignite for dispatchable "peaker" generation.
Excess dry steam is an industrial resource. Silly to waste it.
That’s an interesting point. If coal gasification, heat recovery, and demand could be aligned economically, it would amount to a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
Not new, and it isn’t mine. In a truly industrialized civilization systems thinking dominates. Germany pioneered a lot of that technology. Restoring it from now will take the same level of effort as the original creation.
Great article, hope it will be read by as much people as possible.
However, I have 1 question about graph (1st picture) that shows electricity production in Germany. I think that both numbers are wrong, Germany produced about 200 TWh electricity from solar+wind and 106 TWh from coal. Here is my source, just select Germany
https://ourworldindata.org/electricity-mix
Good catch, you’re right. An earlier draft referenced EU-wide figures and that distinction slipped through in the final revision. I’ve corrected it. Appreciate you keeping me honest.
In your “weather decides” chart, the solar component is such an embarrassment. Thanks for the article, Brawl.
Agreed. Especially considering there’s about 100 GW of installed nameplate capacity. Equal to 67 nuclear plants.
Years ago Germany and Britain bet the farm on wind power, especially offshore wind, and they lost.
Nobody bothered to notice the severe and prolonged wind droughts observed for 60 years on the oil and gas rigs in the North Sea.
The North Sea is a valley of death for wind power.
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/a-curious-tale-of-the-north-sea-winds/
Paul Burgess is onto it as well.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-180089713
Imagine that. Why not admit the truth and tear down the wind mills, tear up the solar panels, and burn coal and natural gas. Who knows, Europe might even save itself (on the energy/economy side - don’t get me started on the immigration side).
I try to stay optimistic. Stranger things have happened…
Very true. After all, the Eastern Roman Empire managed to last an additional 1,000 years after the western half collapsed.
Talking coal reserves, I want to add thst East Germany was the third largest uranium producer globally until 1990. So, we got some other potential as well.
Not to forget that Urenco still operates an enrichment facility in Germany. Energy autonomy remains possible.
In Australia, we had better burn coal or die in the dark. No nuclear, no extension cords, and very expensive gas.
https://rafechampion.substack.com/p/burn-coal-in-australia-or-die-in
Instead it's being sent abroad to power other economies cheaply…
this appears to be the first step in the 'gradually' part of gradually, then suddenly. I fear, however, many Germans alive today may never see the suddenly, when energy sanity returns.
The shift in mainstream media narrative on the true cost of the “transition” over the past 1-2 weeks has been surprising to watch. I try to remain optimistic while preparing for the worst.
Good luck
Idiocracy meets The Matrix. German energy policy seems to care little for actual humans. And to the extent grid operators upcharge human customers to cover AI data center costs, then humans are just inputs to a computer system. All so people can mostly create AI p*rn and AIs themselves can plot against us.
The mismatch between prioritizing people in some distant future and those living today is certainly striking.