All this, and you didnt even mention the CSDDD, which has ruled Qatar out of sending gas because the EU is so committed to net zero. It seems that at the current pace, they will, indeed, achieve net zero as the entire continent and its inhabitants cease to exist given the lack of available energy.
The lesson is energy abundance and diversity. The US has it. Europe lacks it and is cutting the few remaining options it has.
To an extent, this is an age old problem for Europe. Pre-Ukraine conflict, Russia exerted a similar leverage by limiting gas flows of gas through pipelines traversing certain countries.
The UK for a while was insulated from this. Large gas fields and onshore coal fields created a sort of moat, even as gas cannibalised the coal fields through price competition (aided by external coal imports). Now with short gas supplies and open gas/electricity interconnectors, the UK is fundamentally linked to the EU energy insecurity problem. The current Government’s doubling down on North Sea ban just makes the problem worse in the long term.
It’s time to promote the UKs energy industries to invest to get us back to energy abundance. If that means limiting some of the interconnector flows, just as the US can limit LNG flows, then that’s what it takes. Energy Abundance is Energy Security.
Great article, and it sums up Europe's situation perfectly.
Like most problems in life, it is utterly self-inflicted. While that is troublesome, it’s also a source of great hope. If most of your problems in life are self-inflicted, it means you have the ability to fix them once you get serious.
And, as with people, that typically requires hitting rock bottom. Not fun, but as ex-SEAL David Goggins likes to say, "Greatness lies on the other side of suffering."
That greatness, in my opinion, is still very much there for Europe (like for any country) to take, if it so chooses, despite the current malaise.
That’s a refreshingly constructive way to look at it. Self-imposed constraints can be reversed with the political will. Hopefully the course correction comes before the costs become irreversible.
Of curse if Europe and especially the UK lifted their ban on fracking they'd have plenty of gas of their own and wouldn't be dependent on the US, Qatar or Russia....
I would add that, while the EU ‘constitution’ gives the Commission exclusive competency over trade matters, this internal rule does not in any way bind the United States, which can freely ignore it.
Should Trump wish to do so, he could give Georgia Meloni’s Italy tariff free access to the US market for its food and wine exports, while imposing tariffs on Italy’s French competitors at any level he chooses. He could give the UK a zero rate on its automobile exports and hit the Germans with 50%.
Denmark may produce as much as 74% of the US insulin supply and a large part of the Ozempic supply. I see an LNG-for-insulin contingency plan getting worked out in the background here….
The Greenland issue seems to be quite a blip on the radar compared to much of the other topics you’ve written about. I think he wants it for various purposes he’s outlined. One that I think is of the most significant but not talked about is the lack of bureaucratic oversight. Less regulations and the lack of a deep state could allow for a much easier process for mining and processing “rare earth minerals “. But then again, I’m just guessing about anything Trump does just like most everyone else. Net Zero wins again, and the majority of people suffer for it.
That’s a reasonable way to think about it. Greenland matters less for what it enables in isolation and more as the pressure point where existing constraints become visible.
Please don't describe these people as European "elites". They are but literally a handful of people who are not in the same class as the elite. No real elite wants to take the country they live in into a pointless war.
“Once again, European elites have painted themselves into a corner.” Apparently, that same corner is reliance on the weather and, as usual, that’s a bad bet.
Russia "bought a place at the table" for the Board of Peace by pledging $1B of the assets sequestered by the EU. The U.S. and Ukraine now have an interest in getting those funds out of EU and UK hands.
EU and several of its member nations refused to buy in, while all of those who have are the major oil and gas suppliers - with the exception of Norway.
The Norse are presented with the opportunity of economically and politically dominating most of Europe, again. The Chinese opportunity to do so is at least deprecated, slightly.
"You got to know when to fold 'em, know when to hold 'em," but at least recognize when you've been kicked out of the game.
The Kollsnes single-point-of-failure detail is what really hammers home how fragile this setup is. Running a critical infrastructure system at 97% capacity with zero redundancy is exactly the kind of thing that looks fine on paper until it doesn't. The fact that Europes gas storage model functions more like commodity arbitrage than strategic reserve explains alot about why they're in this position. I watched similar dynamics play out in manufacturing supply chains during 2021, same logic.
trump got what he wanted re greenland. post-maduro venezuela is being pushed to get rid of its russian, chinese, iranian and hezbollah presence. the u.s. bombed the drone-making factory there during the maduro raid and also has prevented the manufacture and placement of autonomous underwater vehicles such as ukraine has been using and which could cut off the 2 main shipping lanes to the gulf coast. similarly, the "framework" re greenland says no russian or chinese presence, and the u.s. to have right of first refusal on any developments. 5000 chinese workers were slated to go to greenland, the thin edge of the wedge. now, it ain't happening.
All this, and you didnt even mention the CSDDD, which has ruled Qatar out of sending gas because the EU is so committed to net zero. It seems that at the current pace, they will, indeed, achieve net zero as the entire continent and its inhabitants cease to exist given the lack of available energy.
good luck to you there
If nothing else, buyers with fewer constraints will benefit as Europe pushes supply away through regulation.
it's almost as if they are trying to commit national suicide
The lesson is energy abundance and diversity. The US has it. Europe lacks it and is cutting the few remaining options it has.
To an extent, this is an age old problem for Europe. Pre-Ukraine conflict, Russia exerted a similar leverage by limiting gas flows of gas through pipelines traversing certain countries.
The UK for a while was insulated from this. Large gas fields and onshore coal fields created a sort of moat, even as gas cannibalised the coal fields through price competition (aided by external coal imports). Now with short gas supplies and open gas/electricity interconnectors, the UK is fundamentally linked to the EU energy insecurity problem. The current Government’s doubling down on North Sea ban just makes the problem worse in the long term.
It’s time to promote the UKs energy industries to invest to get us back to energy abundance. If that means limiting some of the interconnector flows, just as the US can limit LNG flows, then that’s what it takes. Energy Abundance is Energy Security.
Agreed. Energy diversity is the real constraint that matters. The EU treats limiting optionality as a sign of strength.
Great article, and it sums up Europe's situation perfectly.
Like most problems in life, it is utterly self-inflicted. While that is troublesome, it’s also a source of great hope. If most of your problems in life are self-inflicted, it means you have the ability to fix them once you get serious.
And, as with people, that typically requires hitting rock bottom. Not fun, but as ex-SEAL David Goggins likes to say, "Greatness lies on the other side of suffering."
That greatness, in my opinion, is still very much there for Europe (like for any country) to take, if it so chooses, despite the current malaise.
That’s a refreshingly constructive way to look at it. Self-imposed constraints can be reversed with the political will. Hopefully the course correction comes before the costs become irreversible.
Of curse if Europe and especially the UK lifted their ban on fracking they'd have plenty of gas of their own and wouldn't be dependent on the US, Qatar or Russia....
Correct. Europe is energy-poor by choice.
Thanks for this insightful commentary.
I would add that, while the EU ‘constitution’ gives the Commission exclusive competency over trade matters, this internal rule does not in any way bind the United States, which can freely ignore it.
Should Trump wish to do so, he could give Georgia Meloni’s Italy tariff free access to the US market for its food and wine exports, while imposing tariffs on Italy’s French competitors at any level he chooses. He could give the UK a zero rate on its automobile exports and hit the Germans with 50%.
Zero for Hungary; 100% for Denmark.
And so on..
hahaha….
Thank you. Europe is very good at binding itself with rules and then being surprised when others ignore them.
Denmark may produce as much as 74% of the US insulin supply and a large part of the Ozempic supply. I see an LNG-for-insulin contingency plan getting worked out in the background here….
Interesting angle. That’s the kind of cross-dependency worth watching.
The Greenland issue seems to be quite a blip on the radar compared to much of the other topics you’ve written about. I think he wants it for various purposes he’s outlined. One that I think is of the most significant but not talked about is the lack of bureaucratic oversight. Less regulations and the lack of a deep state could allow for a much easier process for mining and processing “rare earth minerals “. But then again, I’m just guessing about anything Trump does just like most everyone else. Net Zero wins again, and the majority of people suffer for it.
That’s a reasonable way to think about it. Greenland matters less for what it enables in isolation and more as the pressure point where existing constraints become visible.
Please don't describe these people as European "elites". They are but literally a handful of people who are not in the same class as the elite. No real elite wants to take the country they live in into a pointless war.
That’s fair. It’s a governing class, not an elite with real skin in the game.
Not would they want to take them down the lath of deindustrialization.
It seems absurd that there is no method to ensure reasonable minimum stocks are maintained - but there you go, there isn’t
Another great audit of the region's decision makers' follies!
“Once again, European elites have painted themselves into a corner.” Apparently, that same corner is reliance on the weather and, as usual, that’s a bad bet.
Exactly. Earlier generations spent centuries engineering away dependence on the weather. Today’s policies do the opposite.
It's like living through Atlas Shrugged without the benefit of the creators and innovators of staying "No, stop."
Russia "bought a place at the table" for the Board of Peace by pledging $1B of the assets sequestered by the EU. The U.S. and Ukraine now have an interest in getting those funds out of EU and UK hands.
EU and several of its member nations refused to buy in, while all of those who have are the major oil and gas suppliers - with the exception of Norway.
The Norse are presented with the opportunity of economically and politically dominating most of Europe, again. The Chinese opportunity to do so is at least deprecated, slightly.
"You got to know when to fold 'em, know when to hold 'em," but at least recognize when you've been kicked out of the game.
Power accrues to those who control resources and are willing to deploy them. It will be interesting to see how Norway uses that power.
Victory is reserved for those who are willing to pay its price.
-Sun Tzu
There's also the ability to pay the price, but Europeans should already know this.
The Kollsnes single-point-of-failure detail is what really hammers home how fragile this setup is. Running a critical infrastructure system at 97% capacity with zero redundancy is exactly the kind of thing that looks fine on paper until it doesn't. The fact that Europes gas storage model functions more like commodity arbitrage than strategic reserve explains alot about why they're in this position. I watched similar dynamics play out in manufacturing supply chains during 2021, same logic.
Precisely. Arbitrage models erase buffers, which in turn makes systems fragile.
trump got what he wanted re greenland. post-maduro venezuela is being pushed to get rid of its russian, chinese, iranian and hezbollah presence. the u.s. bombed the drone-making factory there during the maduro raid and also has prevented the manufacture and placement of autonomous underwater vehicles such as ukraine has been using and which could cut off the 2 main shipping lanes to the gulf coast. similarly, the "framework" re greenland says no russian or chinese presence, and the u.s. to have right of first refusal on any developments. 5000 chinese workers were slated to go to greenland, the thin edge of the wedge. now, it ain't happening.
That’s consistent with the broader picture. Greenland may be less a development project and more a denial space: who doesn’t get access matters.