Fantastic article, Brawl. When I was in Belgium last year visiting my sister-in-law (don’t worry, my wife was also with me), I floated a question (because I like to make people uncomfortable) to her and her boyfriend. I asked “which EU county will be the next to leave the Union?” They looked at my like I had three eyeballs.
I presumed that the next shoe to drop would be a result of immigration, but the more I read your articles, I am starting to think it will be a result of poor energy policy.
Thank you for your continued effort with these high-impact articles.
I feel like most Europeans who don’t think too deeply about this stuff have been like the frog in boiling water. But more and more are waking up. The amount of hate under every EU Commission tweet is astounding.
Appreciate the kind words! Glad you find these pieces worthwhile!
The loss of political capital is profound and marks the beginning of a new era in European history, it‘s palpable everywhere. There will be more coming, that too is palpable. I suspect the largest nuclear nation in Europe which is entering the fiscal dungeon will start to throw its energy weight around soon. Germany will only have itself to blame. Energiewende will become a whole new chapter in history books. Should have just let the reactors running and then deliver unbeatably cheap electricty in the summer months, no they had to put social science dropouts in charge of the Energy system.
while I hope you are correct and Germany basically forces their way, overruling Ribera, my observation, and I discussed this in the wake of the Spanish blackout , is that we will need to see 3 major events that can be directly attributed to the idiocy before enough people in Germany rise up and force a change. so that may be blackouts, or maybe it means that industrial facilities close and people lose their jobs because power is no longer affordable, (consider if BMW or Mercedes had to close more plants because they couldn't afford the energy to make cars there). You are correct that the only thing that matters to people in power is staying in power, but it is very difficult to threaten an EU commissioner's job given it is not an elected position. so elected politicians will have to rise up against the commission, something that will be extremely difficult
Appreciate your thoughtful take. I do agree that blackouts or major industrial fallout might be necessary to shift political momentum.
That said, my core argument is not that Ribera will be overruled or pushed out. It’s that her stance (blocking gas) might unintentionally slow the renewable rollout itself, simply because new capacity can’t be added without backup.
In that sense, physical and regulatory constraints could force a pause before public pressure even kicks in.
I hope you are right, I fear that the true believers, like Ribera, don't see the need for backup, at least not until there are real failures. remember, her goal is zero NatGas, so regulations that prevent new solar/wind can more easily be changed with some cockamamie story as to why that is the new, correct view, rather than nat gas plants be built.
Luckily, Ribera doesn’t control how fast Germany builds new wind and solar, that’s up to elected politicians. And if gas gets built without subsidies, she won’t have much say anyway.
The common link in almost every “ renewable transition” story is the complete absurdity of building and maintaining a dispatch-able power source for backup. If that isn’t the absolute biggest waste of resources, I don’t know what is? I really appreciate the depth of your article pointing out the irony of the situation. Love the Sunday Funday event!
Absolutely agree. People don’t realize that the necessity of running a “shadow grid” is simply making everyone poorer. It’s mind boggling. Appreciate the kind words!
New York has figured out they need a dispatchable emissions-free resource for backup during the dark doldrums. The most likely candidate resource for this is nuclear. Only in New York would they be thinking about using nuclear as backup.
Yes, "absurdity" is how I think of it too. I'm have no quarrel with renewables per se -- they have their place -- but currently it's ass backwards. The cart's been put before the horse.
Germany's energy plan is stupid on it's face. It's way beyond time for politicians to step aside, and let energy physicists and engineers run the show, and make the decisions. Then the politicians, if they are smart, will nod and vote YES. Energy security matters. Energy prices matter. Grid stability matters. When will they ever learn???
Good question. One thing’s clear: a lot of people make a ton of money on the net-zero craze, including European energy giants that don’t care whether they sell wind, solar, or gas, as long as subsidies flow. My theory is that the U.S. pushback stems from oil’s historic role in shaping the country. Europe doesn’t have that cultural connection to energy, so most people just swallow whatever narrative dominates.
Most good decisions politicians make, happen by accident. Good unintended consequences. Either that, or they are being totally cynical and saying one thing while doing another, which is probably the default we should all assume.
Fantastic article, Brawl. When I was in Belgium last year visiting my sister-in-law (don’t worry, my wife was also with me), I floated a question (because I like to make people uncomfortable) to her and her boyfriend. I asked “which EU county will be the next to leave the Union?” They looked at my like I had three eyeballs.
I presumed that the next shoe to drop would be a result of immigration, but the more I read your articles, I am starting to think it will be a result of poor energy policy.
Thank you for your continued effort with these high-impact articles.
I feel like most Europeans who don’t think too deeply about this stuff have been like the frog in boiling water. But more and more are waking up. The amount of hate under every EU Commission tweet is astounding.
Appreciate the kind words! Glad you find these pieces worthwhile!
The loss of political capital is profound and marks the beginning of a new era in European history, it‘s palpable everywhere. There will be more coming, that too is palpable. I suspect the largest nuclear nation in Europe which is entering the fiscal dungeon will start to throw its energy weight around soon. Germany will only have itself to blame. Energiewende will become a whole new chapter in history books. Should have just let the reactors running and then deliver unbeatably cheap electricty in the summer months, no they had to put social science dropouts in charge of the Energy system.
while I hope you are correct and Germany basically forces their way, overruling Ribera, my observation, and I discussed this in the wake of the Spanish blackout , is that we will need to see 3 major events that can be directly attributed to the idiocy before enough people in Germany rise up and force a change. so that may be blackouts, or maybe it means that industrial facilities close and people lose their jobs because power is no longer affordable, (consider if BMW or Mercedes had to close more plants because they couldn't afford the energy to make cars there). You are correct that the only thing that matters to people in power is staying in power, but it is very difficult to threaten an EU commissioner's job given it is not an elected position. so elected politicians will have to rise up against the commission, something that will be extremely difficult
Appreciate your thoughtful take. I do agree that blackouts or major industrial fallout might be necessary to shift political momentum.
That said, my core argument is not that Ribera will be overruled or pushed out. It’s that her stance (blocking gas) might unintentionally slow the renewable rollout itself, simply because new capacity can’t be added without backup.
In that sense, physical and regulatory constraints could force a pause before public pressure even kicks in.
I hope you are right, I fear that the true believers, like Ribera, don't see the need for backup, at least not until there are real failures. remember, her goal is zero NatGas, so regulations that prevent new solar/wind can more easily be changed with some cockamamie story as to why that is the new, correct view, rather than nat gas plants be built.
Luckily, Ribera doesn’t control how fast Germany builds new wind and solar, that’s up to elected politicians. And if gas gets built without subsidies, she won’t have much say anyway.
Industrial facilities closing is already happening on a massive scale. Also, the FDI for real production looks terrible.
The common link in almost every “ renewable transition” story is the complete absurdity of building and maintaining a dispatch-able power source for backup. If that isn’t the absolute biggest waste of resources, I don’t know what is? I really appreciate the depth of your article pointing out the irony of the situation. Love the Sunday Funday event!
Absolutely agree. People don’t realize that the necessity of running a “shadow grid” is simply making everyone poorer. It’s mind boggling. Appreciate the kind words!
New York has figured out they need a dispatchable emissions-free resource for backup during the dark doldrums. The most likely candidate resource for this is nuclear. Only in New York would they be thinking about using nuclear as backup.
The green transition is an illness and illusion bundled up as a savior.
Yes, "absurdity" is how I think of it too. I'm have no quarrel with renewables per se -- they have their place -- but currently it's ass backwards. The cart's been put before the horse.
Germany's energy plan is stupid on it's face. It's way beyond time for politicians to step aside, and let energy physicists and engineers run the show, and make the decisions. Then the politicians, if they are smart, will nod and vote YES. Energy security matters. Energy prices matter. Grid stability matters. When will they ever learn???
Along with denying freedom of speech, and importing hoards of unassimilable islamists this idiocy will certainly mean the death of Europe.
Why is Europe so hawkish on climate. What cultural traits make it obsessed over net zero to the point of mania?
Good question. One thing’s clear: a lot of people make a ton of money on the net-zero craze, including European energy giants that don’t care whether they sell wind, solar, or gas, as long as subsidies flow. My theory is that the U.S. pushback stems from oil’s historic role in shaping the country. Europe doesn’t have that cultural connection to energy, so most people just swallow whatever narrative dominates.
GOD SPEED
Malice Oblige .
They mean Harm.
Are you aware of the role played by Green in the Hawaii and California fires? Go and look.
In summary Green Commissioners created the conditions for the fires then the fires happened.
To the point; Land clearances.
Real Estate.
And less peasants.
You haven’t had a government this ruthless to Germans since the Thirty Years War, of course.
The DDR repressed, it didn’t HATE Germans.
Or Spaniards, Or Portuges.
You’re under the power of people who hate you and you’re babbling about money and technical matters.
You are making the same mistake we 🇺🇸 did until we wised up and voted in a President who doesn’t hate us.
May I suggest you consider your oppressors not as irrational, silly or incompetent- but the reverse is true.
You may not have the time to recover.
That’s one way to see it.
Want some peanut butter?
https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkxnjx2gyJDL5LsvB1UHzz_q2CxrbS1Thd_?si=_fgzNErHxGaAA08W
She won’t save Germany, she’s irrational and ideological- look where Spain is and what happened at least once already.
Even more absurd was she wouldn’t sign off on uranium mine in Spain and would rather source that from Russia.
Politics may win over common sense in the short term but in the end economies and industry needs to survive .
That’s exactly the point the piece makes if you read past the headline.
Most good decisions politicians make, happen by accident. Good unintended consequences. Either that, or they are being totally cynical and saying one thing while doing another, which is probably the default we should all assume.