The German car industry is in very bad shape, and it's profits paid for a lot of spending by the German Govt including in support of the EU. I'm not sure where all the money will come from for increased spending on defense, social welfare, energy subsidies and the EU budget. Once the German paymaster is unable to spend on all of that then what does that mean for the fate of the EU project....interesting times indeed
That horse can be ridden for a few election cycles with citizens getting poorer. Good reasons to implement the Digital Services Act more thoroughly, so we can't complain anymore ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I would rather see the money going to pensioners than used to buy weapons so European people can keep bombing each other while the rest of the world is counting the points...
Precise observation: the requirement of an on going conflict seems structural, indeed! I never viewed it that particular way.
Governments in Europe absolutely require that men and women are killed daily ... Nietzsche was correct: “A state, is called the coldest of all cold monsters. .."
I fear you are correct. There seems to be no easy offramp to end this.
But thinking about it from an investor perspective, I think the Ukraine war, like the current Iran war and the coming? Taiwan war, is more about the transition pain from a unipolar world to a multipolar world.
And while I am a huge fan of Europe (I lived there for a while), if the US wanted the war in Ukraine over, it would be over. We would turn off our satellites for Ukraine, pull back our "support" forces in Ukraine, and tell Europe to fall into line, which they would.
I get your great comments about the changing economic inertia in Europe, as Europe is switching to weapons manufacturing as a replacement for a failing consumer goods industry (VW, etc.). Having said that, I don't think EU agency is—sadly—that strong. In 2022, the gas pipelines to Russia (Nord Stream 1 and 2) were destroyed, destroying a critical economic lifeline to Europe, likely by the US (Seymour Hersh's reporting) or allied Ukrainian forces (5 men and a boat—LOL). And Europe turned a blind eye to it.
I would love to see more independent EU actors, but fixing reality starts with acknowledging reality. That is not meant as a put-down of Europeans (great people), but just a reflection of power politics. I separate the people from the power politics of countries.
The same power politics apply, of course, to the US. We like to pretend it didn't happen, but the US had to play nice with China because they control 80% of the rare earth minerals that we need. Recently China invoked a Chinese law prohibiting Chinese companies in the oil sector from complying with our sanctions. Instead of making a big deal about it—which it is from a US perspective—we also pretended it didn't happen, as it shows the new global power politics realities.
Having said that, my hope is that once reality sinks in in Washington that the multipolar world is here to stay and that there is no magic bullet to get it back, then I hope local conflicts like the Ukraine war will be resolved.
But like you, I would love to be wrong and see peace in Europe sooner rather than later.
Thank you! And you add a crucial piece to the puzzle with the US being able to force Europe to stop the war. But the same test applies there: the US actors with something to gain from continuation have so far overridden the ones who'd prefer to see it end.
Years ago, deluding itself with the idea of a swift military victory, Europe carelessly put its finger in the Donbass grinder. Now, it's threatening to swallow its whole arm. But Eurocrats made sure month after month there is no politically acceptable way out...
At some point, something will have to break. Democracy is already on the brink. Economy might soon follow.
A plausible theory! Starting with the formation of the IPPC (1988) and the gradual conversion of UK and US government sponsored "scientific" agencies such as HADCRUT, The Met Office, NOAA etc. who took the IPCC "recommendations" and twisted the data on catastrophic weather events to fit the narrative that the earth was on fire. Piling on this, the German Merkel put in place "Energiewende" in 2010, the UK coined the term "Net Zero" in 2019 leading to current crisis in the EU and UN. All to support government policies forcing so called "renewable" energy on the world to the tune of many trillions of taxpayer cash. This, and our education system with brainwashed, tenures professors and teachers at all levels has led to absolute fear of climate disasters in our young people.
Any surprise that the west is deindustrializing and losing basic essential industries.
Apart from the US (?)where RINO's, Democrats and lawfare threaten sensible energy policies.
The Ukraine war is but a symptom of this slow meltdown.
The US is pushing Europe to buy the military hardware it can’t afford to produce itself for Ukraine, so the money keeps exporting away. The war is horrible for Russians and Ukrainians mostly, but Europeans also. Eastern Europe has always been a tough neighborhood.
I don’t think your argument is different than what I am saying. America is telling Europe to rearm with American weapons. Trump has told Europeans to defend Ukraine by buying American weapons.
No, we 🇺🇸 are telling Europe to rearm so we are either in a position to contract and concentrate our forces in the Western Hemisphere and to defend themselves, possibly with a further option of withdrawing from Europe altogether. This is our stated policy. NSS USA 2025 also long history. We 🇺🇸 have no need of permanent armies in Europe only that we have dominance over the Atlantic. Not just our stated policy but historical norm, one may also see the map ~ geography. We have learned to read maps again and so should Europe.
I sense the same phenomenon in America for years; rearmament at scale with at least a partial agenda of reindustrializing America. Indeed DoW/DOD is taking the lead on not just industry but strategic minerals investment (rare earths) and energy broad spectrum-modular reactors, AI inference to the edge (Anduril Menace Air portable Data centers now supported by Amazon) and waiving under National Security the Colossus gas turbine power for the Memphis DC. The Patriotic Captains of Industry Trump leads (they seem only to have been waiting for Topcover and Trump provides) such as Musk, Karp, Andreessen Horowitz, Palmer Luckey/Anduril are indeed taking the lead. Also look at shipyard building. Musk re SpaceX for Space. 🇺🇸We may be preparing for war with China and we are certainly building up America under the banner of para bellum. It would be excellent if we become prosperous under the banner of being strong.
Brawlster, I fear you have laid out the realities extremely well. the benefits of the war to those in power far outweigh any potential benefits if the war ends, hence it will continue. It will be interesting to watch the financing of this project as I suspect the borrowing power of the EU will be tested over time. but that could be a very long time. history shows things of this nature can last far longer than expected, nor desired by most people.
I expect you will get your wish and write that you were wrong twice. Putin has, can, and will continue to put up with the slaughter of countless Russian men, attacks on oil refineries, pipelines, and other infrastructure so long as there is no impending groundswell against at the war, because his dream of restoring the greater Russian empire and joining the rankle of Peter and Catherine the Greats remains alive. Stopping the war now with nothing to show for the death and destruction is simply unacceptable.
In Europe, the Ukrainians would, I believe, accept the loss of some land for a treaty that would be enforceable and lasting. The East Europeans support Ukraine because they fear an aggressive Russian dictator with designs on all of their countries. They do not believe that Putin would settle for the Donbas only but would rearm, and they’d have to deal with the Russians again in five to ten years.
In Western Europe, they understand that the Trump administration looks askance at NATO spending and fear that Putin’s aggression will continue and they’d could find themselves in his sights, especially if the U.S. withdraws some NATO support. I also think that they believe that if the war continues long enough, that groundswell in opposition to the war in Russia could lead to Putin’s fall. If that happens, the prospect of a friendly neighbor buying their products and selling them cheap gas would make their support of Ukraine the bet of a lifetime.
The German car industry is in very bad shape, and it's profits paid for a lot of spending by the German Govt including in support of the EU. I'm not sure where all the money will come from for increased spending on defense, social welfare, energy subsidies and the EU budget. Once the German paymaster is unable to spend on all of that then what does that mean for the fate of the EU project....interesting times indeed
That horse can be ridden for a few election cycles with citizens getting poorer. Good reasons to implement the Digital Services Act more thoroughly, so we can't complain anymore ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I guess Europe might still borrow quite a lot of money. The interesting question is who is going to pay for Europe to dig its own grave...
The EU will certainly borrow a lot more. Someone has to pay for all those French pensioners
I would rather see the money going to pensioners than used to buy weapons so European people can keep bombing each other while the rest of the world is counting the points...
That’s choosing slow Thanos over quick Thanos, where is Eros? Thanos Death before Eros life- babies. Babies require resources which means jobs.
Pacifism is Thanos -Death- by proxy agent.
Nihilists are abundant in the EU/UK. Unfortunately you will not be wrong.
I'm afraid so.
A fine piece you wrote there!
Precise observation: the requirement of an on going conflict seems structural, indeed! I never viewed it that particular way.
Governments in Europe absolutely require that men and women are killed daily ... Nietzsche was correct: “A state, is called the coldest of all cold monsters. .."
shiver down the spine on a Sunday morning
Thank you! Mad at myself for not having opened with that Nietzsche quote…
Great article, as usual.
I fear you are correct. There seems to be no easy offramp to end this.
But thinking about it from an investor perspective, I think the Ukraine war, like the current Iran war and the coming? Taiwan war, is more about the transition pain from a unipolar world to a multipolar world.
And while I am a huge fan of Europe (I lived there for a while), if the US wanted the war in Ukraine over, it would be over. We would turn off our satellites for Ukraine, pull back our "support" forces in Ukraine, and tell Europe to fall into line, which they would.
I get your great comments about the changing economic inertia in Europe, as Europe is switching to weapons manufacturing as a replacement for a failing consumer goods industry (VW, etc.). Having said that, I don't think EU agency is—sadly—that strong. In 2022, the gas pipelines to Russia (Nord Stream 1 and 2) were destroyed, destroying a critical economic lifeline to Europe, likely by the US (Seymour Hersh's reporting) or allied Ukrainian forces (5 men and a boat—LOL). And Europe turned a blind eye to it.
I would love to see more independent EU actors, but fixing reality starts with acknowledging reality. That is not meant as a put-down of Europeans (great people), but just a reflection of power politics. I separate the people from the power politics of countries.
The same power politics apply, of course, to the US. We like to pretend it didn't happen, but the US had to play nice with China because they control 80% of the rare earth minerals that we need. Recently China invoked a Chinese law prohibiting Chinese companies in the oil sector from complying with our sanctions. Instead of making a big deal about it—which it is from a US perspective—we also pretended it didn't happen, as it shows the new global power politics realities.
Having said that, my hope is that once reality sinks in in Washington that the multipolar world is here to stay and that there is no magic bullet to get it back, then I hope local conflicts like the Ukraine war will be resolved.
But like you, I would love to be wrong and see peace in Europe sooner rather than later.
Thank you! And you add a crucial piece to the puzzle with the US being able to force Europe to stop the war. But the same test applies there: the US actors with something to gain from continuation have so far overridden the ones who'd prefer to see it end.
Dire considerations indeed.
Years ago, deluding itself with the idea of a swift military victory, Europe carelessly put its finger in the Donbass grinder. Now, it's threatening to swallow its whole arm. But Eurocrats made sure month after month there is no politically acceptable way out...
At some point, something will have to break. Democracy is already on the brink. Economy might soon follow.
Absolutely. This could be a gradually, then suddenly scenario.
When evolution become impossible, revolution becomes inevitable.
Yup
Like I said in my past pieces: Germany looks like the lights go out without a "war economy". This makes this piece "sad but true".
Sadder still that a war economy is a bridge to nowhere.
A plausible theory! Starting with the formation of the IPPC (1988) and the gradual conversion of UK and US government sponsored "scientific" agencies such as HADCRUT, The Met Office, NOAA etc. who took the IPCC "recommendations" and twisted the data on catastrophic weather events to fit the narrative that the earth was on fire. Piling on this, the German Merkel put in place "Energiewende" in 2010, the UK coined the term "Net Zero" in 2019 leading to current crisis in the EU and UN. All to support government policies forcing so called "renewable" energy on the world to the tune of many trillions of taxpayer cash. This, and our education system with brainwashed, tenures professors and teachers at all levels has led to absolute fear of climate disasters in our young people.
Any surprise that the west is deindustrializing and losing basic essential industries.
Apart from the US (?)where RINO's, Democrats and lawfare threaten sensible energy policies.
The Ukraine war is but a symptom of this slow meltdown.
The use of irrational fear at the core of these policies is the striking parallel.
The US is pushing Europe to buy the military hardware it can’t afford to produce itself for Ukraine, so the money keeps exporting away. The war is horrible for Russians and Ukrainians mostly, but Europeans also. Eastern Europe has always been a tough neighborhood.
I don’t think your argument is different than what I am saying. America is telling Europe to rearm with American weapons. Trump has told Europeans to defend Ukraine by buying American weapons.
No, we 🇺🇸 are telling Europe to rearm so we are either in a position to contract and concentrate our forces in the Western Hemisphere and to defend themselves, possibly with a further option of withdrawing from Europe altogether. This is our stated policy. NSS USA 2025 also long history. We 🇺🇸 have no need of permanent armies in Europe only that we have dominance over the Atlantic. Not just our stated policy but historical norm, one may also see the map ~ geography. We have learned to read maps again and so should Europe.
Correct.
I sense the same phenomenon in America for years; rearmament at scale with at least a partial agenda of reindustrializing America. Indeed DoW/DOD is taking the lead on not just industry but strategic minerals investment (rare earths) and energy broad spectrum-modular reactors, AI inference to the edge (Anduril Menace Air portable Data centers now supported by Amazon) and waiving under National Security the Colossus gas turbine power for the Memphis DC. The Patriotic Captains of Industry Trump leads (they seem only to have been waiting for Topcover and Trump provides) such as Musk, Karp, Andreessen Horowitz, Palmer Luckey/Anduril are indeed taking the lead. Also look at shipyard building. Musk re SpaceX for Space. 🇺🇸We may be preparing for war with China and we are certainly building up America under the banner of para bellum. It would be excellent if we become prosperous under the banner of being strong.
America's rearmament reindustrializes. Europe's coexists with its industry leaving.
That doesn’t have to happen.
But they need to stand up to their own sellouts and Brussels.
Brawlster, I fear you have laid out the realities extremely well. the benefits of the war to those in power far outweigh any potential benefits if the war ends, hence it will continue. It will be interesting to watch the financing of this project as I suspect the borrowing power of the EU will be tested over time. but that could be a very long time. history shows things of this nature can last far longer than expected, nor desired by most people.
There are certainly a couple of additional bps to be squeezed out of Europe and its citizenry in the coming years.
for sure
I expect you will get your wish and write that you were wrong twice. Putin has, can, and will continue to put up with the slaughter of countless Russian men, attacks on oil refineries, pipelines, and other infrastructure so long as there is no impending groundswell against at the war, because his dream of restoring the greater Russian empire and joining the rankle of Peter and Catherine the Greats remains alive. Stopping the war now with nothing to show for the death and destruction is simply unacceptable.
In Europe, the Ukrainians would, I believe, accept the loss of some land for a treaty that would be enforceable and lasting. The East Europeans support Ukraine because they fear an aggressive Russian dictator with designs on all of their countries. They do not believe that Putin would settle for the Donbas only but would rearm, and they’d have to deal with the Russians again in five to ten years.
In Western Europe, they understand that the Trump administration looks askance at NATO spending and fear that Putin’s aggression will continue and they’d could find themselves in his sights, especially if the U.S. withdraws some NATO support. I also think that they believe that if the war continues long enough, that groundswell in opposition to the war in Russia could lead to Putin’s fall. If that happens, the prospect of a friendly neighbor buying their products and selling them cheap gas would make their support of Ukraine the bet of a lifetime.