In 1966 Carolina Power and Light decided to build a nuclear power station. Construction began in 1967. H B Robinson went online in 1971 and has been operating profitably since then. Are Wind farms getting cheaper to rebuild?
From 2010-2023 the global weighted average level used cost of onshore wind fell 70%. 104 GW of wind was commissioned in 2023 and in each jurisdiction, the life-cycle cost of energy from those wind projects is lower than new-build coal, gas, or nuclear.
There has been a bit of volatility the last year or two because of global supply chain disruptions which have hit almost all sectors to varying degrees. So the price rose marginally last year, but that far from reverses the decadal trend.
Solar, of course, declined 90% in the same time period.
So unambiguously, yes. New wind and solar continues to get cheaper, even after you account for reinforcement of grid stability.
In western electricity markets the price is set by the highest marginal bidder - retail prices have risen due to high gas prices in recent years. This can easily be confirmed by simple analysis of the bids in your local market if that data is publicly available.
Solar and wind farms have profited generously from high gas prices because they get paid inflated prices for their energy - we shouldn’t expect them to be quite so profitable in a future with less gas.
Thank you very much for the great article. However, I would like to point out that while rotating masses can compensate for short-term frequency changes, they cannot replace the loss of large power generators. In such cases, the missing electrical energy must be made available almost instantly, which is only possible if the required primary energy is available. This means that pumped storage power plants (if they exist) must have full upper reservoirs, and gas power plants must have both fuel and operational readiness.
In the past, when Europe’s power grid was still manageable, this system worked well because the electricity supply was based on baseload power plants, and peak demand was covered by these peak-load power plants. However, with the rise of large wind farms and solar fields, the permanent shutdown of baseload power plants, and the lack of gas power plants, the situation is becoming increasingly difficult.
I believe this is also the reason for turning to battery storage. Whether these batteries are designed for only relatively short lifetimes is a decision made by planners and operators. In any case, it is certain that technology is making great progress in this area, such as with replaceable lithium electrolytes.
Thank you! Batteries help, but can they scale affordably? Grid storage is still an expensive, short-term fix for lost baseload stability. Tech improvements won’t change physics.
Did any specialist in electrical energy call this out beforehand? Now that I read your piece the need for such stabilizers seems obvious. As well as their considerable cost.
There's also demand side inertia to consider - industrial and domestic motors on pumps, e.g. fridges, also have inertia. When the supply voltage and frequency drops then they spin less quickly and so demand less power, creating a useful negative feedback loop when the grid is in a bit of trouble. I suppose it's even possible that more heat pumps would help the situation? But I'm not a fan of them.
Just when we thought renewables are the real deal, and boom find ourselves in another shithole. Grid stability business is coming up. Unless we adopt baseload renewables like hydropower. Intermittent renewables won't power the future economy.
It’s interesting to frame clean energy transition as society shifting to higher capital maintenance energy infrastructure. Within the US specifically, maturing oil and gas reservoirs are leading to increased F&D ($/boe) every year. While technological and operational efficiencies try to maximize EURs per foot per well drilled, it’s hard to ignore high quality inventory is quickly being depleted. All to say, sticking to purely fossil fuels similarly will lead to a higher maintenance capital environment for energy production processes. I would rather much begin to start thinking of innovative ways to increase grid resiliency for the future energy grid than to say “lets no spend billions on clean energy tech solutions for grid stability”. Nonetheless a great read!!
It reveals that, as well as cutting customers (including my family) off from the grid, there were more ominous and dangerous consequences. E.g.:
"...certain Govia Thameslink Railway trains shut down and became stranded due to the configuration of their own on-board automatic safety systems, and this caused other services to be cancelled or delayed".
I see from my diary entry that the power failure was attributed to "lightning". There was no mention of the chain of events initiated by the lightning, which apparently wouldn't have done much harm with the older system of power supply.
Yes, firstly wind/solar plants were build to follow the grid. That was an easy solution when there were few of them. When they started to comprise a bigger part of the grid they naturally need to start to take part in grid-forming. The change required is mostly in software/configuration anyway.
Yes, grid needs to be updated to meet the new energy source as well as new demand patterns. So? You seems to imply it is some kind of blasphemy or what?
The biggest issue is the stupor EU policy around price forming, when the most expensive producer sets the price for all produced electricity at any given moment. And this most-expensive producer is not renewables.
I’ll start by admitting I’m no expert in modern grid management, though I’d be interested in your take on the South Australia model.
They seem to be managing well with ever increasing proportions of renewables on their grid - currently over 70%. A quick search on how they are managing for inertia shows that they commissioned the A$90MM Hornsdale battery in 2017. They also have synchronous condensers with flywheels installed in 2021 at a cost of A$166MM.
I do believe it comes at a price, though. South Australia’s electricity prices are about 40% higher than other Australian states.
That all said, they seem to be managing fine. No blackouts since 2016 and that was from a storm.
Other than cost, is there something else I’m missing?
Renewables with their short lifespan are better described as Rebuildable
For the Net-Zero Industrial Complex that's a feature, not a bug.
Of course, for the incumbent Fossil Industrial Complex, the feature is that you continuously purchase fuel.
Every technology has ongoing costs, renewables have larger, less frequent ones
In 1966 Carolina Power and Light decided to build a nuclear power station. Construction began in 1967. H B Robinson went online in 1971 and has been operating profitably since then. Are Wind farms getting cheaper to rebuild?
Yes. (Source linked below)
From 2010-2023 the global weighted average level used cost of onshore wind fell 70%. 104 GW of wind was commissioned in 2023 and in each jurisdiction, the life-cycle cost of energy from those wind projects is lower than new-build coal, gas, or nuclear.
There has been a bit of volatility the last year or two because of global supply chain disruptions which have hit almost all sectors to varying degrees. So the price rose marginally last year, but that far from reverses the decadal trend.
Solar, of course, declined 90% in the same time period.
So unambiguously, yes. New wind and solar continues to get cheaper, even after you account for reinforcement of grid stability.
https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2024/Sep/IRENA_Renewable_power_generation_costs_in_2023.pdf
Where is the place that residential electricity prices have dropped?
In western electricity markets the price is set by the highest marginal bidder - retail prices have risen due to high gas prices in recent years. This can easily be confirmed by simple analysis of the bids in your local market if that data is publicly available.
Solar and wind farms have profited generously from high gas prices because they get paid inflated prices for their energy - we shouldn’t expect them to be quite so profitable in a future with less gas.
Rebuyable.
Remarkably analogous to Big Pharma, whose ideal customer is a chronic invalid with a long lifespan.
In each case, the trick is to ensure large "revenue streams" that continue indefinitely. And the hell with electricity consumers and patients.
Not even Rebuildable https://reneweconomy.com.au/australias-oldest-commercial-wind-farm-to-close-as-cost-of-repowering-is-too-high/
Well yes, they’re old and they’ll be replaced with new ones soon enough.
You wouldn’t spend a large sum of money fixing a Commodore 64 today, you would buy a modern computer
That was so informative! Thank you so much. Could you slip this in the next drink the renewables crowd sips on.
Consider it done! 🫡
I always wondered what happened when supply and demand don't match. Thank you for a complete explanation of the whole picture.
Thank you for reading!
Take a look at my Power Systems series here on Substack for more technical descriptions.
The electrical grid does not operator on Moore's Law, its quite the opposite.
Thank you very much for the great article. However, I would like to point out that while rotating masses can compensate for short-term frequency changes, they cannot replace the loss of large power generators. In such cases, the missing electrical energy must be made available almost instantly, which is only possible if the required primary energy is available. This means that pumped storage power plants (if they exist) must have full upper reservoirs, and gas power plants must have both fuel and operational readiness.
In the past, when Europe’s power grid was still manageable, this system worked well because the electricity supply was based on baseload power plants, and peak demand was covered by these peak-load power plants. However, with the rise of large wind farms and solar fields, the permanent shutdown of baseload power plants, and the lack of gas power plants, the situation is becoming increasingly difficult.
I believe this is also the reason for turning to battery storage. Whether these batteries are designed for only relatively short lifetimes is a decision made by planners and operators. In any case, it is certain that technology is making great progress in this area, such as with replaceable lithium electrolytes.
Let me know if you need any adjustments!
Thank you! Batteries help, but can they scale affordably? Grid storage is still an expensive, short-term fix for lost baseload stability. Tech improvements won’t change physics.
Ah, lithium again! Lithium batteries are fine with me - as long as they are at least 50 miles away.
How do you use a phone or laptop then?
Did any specialist in electrical energy call this out beforehand? Now that I read your piece the need for such stabilizers seems obvious. As well as their considerable cost.
Engineers have been sounding the alarm for over a decade. This 2018 paper cites research dating back to at least 2012 that highlights the issue: https://people.ee.ethz.ch/~floriand/docs/Articles/PSCC_2018_Survey.pdf
But as Doomberg often points out, the technocrats in charge believe physics can be replaced with platitudes. Until reality proves otherwise
Wow! A real eye opener…
There's also demand side inertia to consider - industrial and domestic motors on pumps, e.g. fridges, also have inertia. When the supply voltage and frequency drops then they spin less quickly and so demand less power, creating a useful negative feedback loop when the grid is in a bit of trouble. I suppose it's even possible that more heat pumps would help the situation? But I'm not a fan of them.
Just when we thought renewables are the real deal, and boom find ourselves in another shithole. Grid stability business is coming up. Unless we adopt baseload renewables like hydropower. Intermittent renewables won't power the future economy.
It’s interesting to frame clean energy transition as society shifting to higher capital maintenance energy infrastructure. Within the US specifically, maturing oil and gas reservoirs are leading to increased F&D ($/boe) every year. While technological and operational efficiencies try to maximize EURs per foot per well drilled, it’s hard to ignore high quality inventory is quickly being depleted. All to say, sticking to purely fossil fuels similarly will lead to a higher maintenance capital environment for energy production processes. I would rather much begin to start thinking of innovative ways to increase grid resiliency for the future energy grid than to say “lets no spend billions on clean energy tech solutions for grid stability”. Nonetheless a great read!!
The report referred to in the fine article is well worth reading. It's not too technical and can be easily understood.
https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/docs/9_august_2019_power_outage_report.pdf
It reveals that, as well as cutting customers (including my family) off from the grid, there were more ominous and dangerous consequences. E.g.:
"...certain Govia Thameslink Railway trains shut down and became stranded due to the configuration of their own on-board automatic safety systems, and this caused other services to be cancelled or delayed".
I see from my diary entry that the power failure was attributed to "lightning". There was no mention of the chain of events initiated by the lightning, which apparently wouldn't have done much harm with the older system of power supply.
Superb work!!!
Thank you!
Wind and Solar will be nothing but supplemental power sources, once people “get it”. That may take decades. Especially the politicians.
So, what’s the point? What do you propose?
Yes, firstly wind/solar plants were build to follow the grid. That was an easy solution when there were few of them. When they started to comprise a bigger part of the grid they naturally need to start to take part in grid-forming. The change required is mostly in software/configuration anyway.
Yes, grid needs to be updated to meet the new energy source as well as new demand patterns. So? You seems to imply it is some kind of blasphemy or what?
The biggest issue is the stupor EU policy around price forming, when the most expensive producer sets the price for all produced electricity at any given moment. And this most-expensive producer is not renewables.
I’ll start by admitting I’m no expert in modern grid management, though I’d be interested in your take on the South Australia model.
They seem to be managing well with ever increasing proportions of renewables on their grid - currently over 70%. A quick search on how they are managing for inertia shows that they commissioned the A$90MM Hornsdale battery in 2017. They also have synchronous condensers with flywheels installed in 2021 at a cost of A$166MM.
I do believe it comes at a price, though. South Australia’s electricity prices are about 40% higher than other Australian states.
That all said, they seem to be managing fine. No blackouts since 2016 and that was from a storm.
Other than cost, is there something else I’m missing?
Cost is huge tho - 40% is massive and for what?