I've written in my Master's thesis about Russian gas as part of and influence in, European policymaking back in 2013. This issue never went away because Russia will never go away, its here to stay, despite Ukrainian hysteria. Historical examples you've given also bolster the case for Nordstream being ressurected, and who knows, it might be imminent as well.
What is your take on the Russian position regarding a potential liquidation of NS2? The Swiss courts may have legal control over NS2, but unless the Russian government agrees, it is just a pipeline without gas. I seem to remember reading that the Russian government didn't like the idea of NS2 being liquidated, but that was under the old US administration. Is your thinking that the Russian government could be brought on board as part of a bigger peace deal, and that the US government will drop its long opposition to this pipeline since they would now control it and also profit from it (transit fees)?
Thank you! Market forces almost always override political ideology in the long run. Russia has a lot of stranded gas, Europe needs it. Chances are, it will find its way to Europe and that the US will drop its opposition to NS2.
I think there are three reasons making it likely the current US administration will be on board:
(1) Growing proportion of American gas sent overseas causes a domestic supply strain.
(2) AI is about to increase US gas demand.
(3) Opening up gas flows from Russia to Europe is a bargaining chip within a broader peace deal that Trump can use as leverage (access to rare earth minerals in Ukraine).
Of course, transit fees for the US will also sweeten the pot.
Ukranian operatives? I guess you haven't taken the red pill. Read the report from Seymour Herse. I wouldn't be surprised to learn in the future that this German media is the recipient of us aid funds.
You really believe “evidence strongly suggests that the attack was carried out by Ukrainian operatives”? That WSJ story is total BS. It’s obvious the U.S. did it. Just listen to the veiled threats by high US officials including Biden.
The last thing Trump wants is NS2 reopened. He didn’t like it in his first term. He’ll do what can, which is a lot, to prevent European imports of Russian gas.
Yes, the available evidence strongly suggests Ukrainian operatives carried out the attack (see link for details on the German investigation). Could the US have played a role? Sure, but that remains speculation. Biden’s remarks are not evidence. And yes, Trump was against NS2 during his first term. I’m merely laying out the facts that suggest why he might assess the situation differently this time.
As one of the mentioned taxpayers 🤕 and close observers I like to add a grain of salt.
The likelyness that Ukrainian operatives have conducted this job is second in the row of absurdities. No 1 is Russia blew up its 10 B Investment.
Please note:
Der Spiegel was a remarkable and mostly trustworthy source 30+ years back.
Search for "Relotius Tales" and find out. Der Spiegel takes money from whoever is buying positive coverage. Mr. Gates / his foundation alone has paid Close to 6 Million USD since 2018.
Surely USAID will surface too some healthy flows to them. The German Governement is ( besides others) flooding them.
Sorry to say: your case walks on fragile Sticks.
Disclaimer: This does not apply to the article as such. Highly endorse it.
Thanks, Petra! I get the skepticism, Spiegel is far from perfect. But at this point, who exactly carried out the attack matters less for anticipating what’s next, especially with a new U.S. administration in place. I focus on what we do know and where things are headed from here.
Fully agree that this is a viable point to look on the matter. Why I highlighted this point is the bigger picture that shows remarkable inconsistencies.
Neither Poland, Denmark, Sweden nor Germany's government disclosed any of their findings. Which is such stark smoke and mirrors, considering the tremendous impact this terrorist attack on such a large industrial investnent has sparked and massively effected the deindustrialisation of the biggest european economy. Five years from now this will be in full blow, so my assumption.
Former CIA agent Larry Johnson delivered a speech to the UN Security Council about how it was the USA bombing those pipes. German media, claiming that it was Ukrainian sailors with a snorkel and explosives never made sense.
I have a hard time believing a steel pipe flooded with seawater is going to stay viable for long. If they want ti save it they need to repair it, purge it, and flood it with a zero o2 gas.
Three pipes are damaged, and according to one estimate, it will take 3–5 months to repair each. Such damage was anticipated when NS2 was planned, as there are still many WWII bombs in that area of the Baltic Sea
EDIT: Three segments are damaged, not three pipes.
The huge problem arising from that task is the inner coating of the pipes. Very sensitive to saltwater and at the same time most probably impossible to apply in the given circumstances. Hightech Process in the production plant.
I've written in my Master's thesis about Russian gas as part of and influence in, European policymaking back in 2013. This issue never went away because Russia will never go away, its here to stay, despite Ukrainian hysteria. Historical examples you've given also bolster the case for Nordstream being ressurected, and who knows, it might be imminent as well.
One country has the molecules in abundance, the other desperately needs them. Economic realities tend to reassert themselves.
Outstanding work.
Thank you! 🫡
Great article.
What is your take on the Russian position regarding a potential liquidation of NS2? The Swiss courts may have legal control over NS2, but unless the Russian government agrees, it is just a pipeline without gas. I seem to remember reading that the Russian government didn't like the idea of NS2 being liquidated, but that was under the old US administration. Is your thinking that the Russian government could be brought on board as part of a bigger peace deal, and that the US government will drop its long opposition to this pipeline since they would now control it and also profit from it (transit fees)?
Thank you! Market forces almost always override political ideology in the long run. Russia has a lot of stranded gas, Europe needs it. Chances are, it will find its way to Europe and that the US will drop its opposition to NS2.
I think there are three reasons making it likely the current US administration will be on board:
(1) Growing proportion of American gas sent overseas causes a domestic supply strain.
(2) AI is about to increase US gas demand.
(3) Opening up gas flows from Russia to Europe is a bargaining chip within a broader peace deal that Trump can use as leverage (access to rare earth minerals in Ukraine).
Of course, transit fees for the US will also sweeten the pot.
Ukranian operatives? I guess you haven't taken the red pill. Read the report from Seymour Herse. I wouldn't be surprised to learn in the future that this German media is the recipient of us aid funds.
You really believe “evidence strongly suggests that the attack was carried out by Ukrainian operatives”? That WSJ story is total BS. It’s obvious the U.S. did it. Just listen to the veiled threats by high US officials including Biden.
The last thing Trump wants is NS2 reopened. He didn’t like it in his first term. He’ll do what can, which is a lot, to prevent European imports of Russian gas.
Yes, the available evidence strongly suggests Ukrainian operatives carried out the attack (see link for details on the German investigation). Could the US have played a role? Sure, but that remains speculation. Biden’s remarks are not evidence. And yes, Trump was against NS2 during his first term. I’m merely laying out the facts that suggest why he might assess the situation differently this time.
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/nord-stream-wie-ein-ukrainisches-geheimkommando-pipelines-sprengte-a-7aceb6f8-060f-4d29-9ddd-582dfdaf4ac6
As one of the mentioned taxpayers 🤕 and close observers I like to add a grain of salt.
The likelyness that Ukrainian operatives have conducted this job is second in the row of absurdities. No 1 is Russia blew up its 10 B Investment.
Please note:
Der Spiegel was a remarkable and mostly trustworthy source 30+ years back.
Search for "Relotius Tales" and find out. Der Spiegel takes money from whoever is buying positive coverage. Mr. Gates / his foundation alone has paid Close to 6 Million USD since 2018.
Surely USAID will surface too some healthy flows to them. The German Governement is ( besides others) flooding them.
Sorry to say: your case walks on fragile Sticks.
Disclaimer: This does not apply to the article as such. Highly endorse it.
Thanks, Petra! I get the skepticism, Spiegel is far from perfect. But at this point, who exactly carried out the attack matters less for anticipating what’s next, especially with a new U.S. administration in place. I focus on what we do know and where things are headed from here.
Fully agree that this is a viable point to look on the matter. Why I highlighted this point is the bigger picture that shows remarkable inconsistencies.
Neither Poland, Denmark, Sweden nor Germany's government disclosed any of their findings. Which is such stark smoke and mirrors, considering the tremendous impact this terrorist attack on such a large industrial investnent has sparked and massively effected the deindustrialisation of the biggest european economy. Five years from now this will be in full blow, so my assumption.
What’s your take on this report by Seymour Herse? https://open.substack.com/pub/seymourhersh/p/nord-stream-and-the-failures-of-the?r=ewwfu&utm_medium=ios. This is only the latest of his reports on this story. Given his reputation, this report is hard to dismiss.
Former CIA agent Larry Johnson delivered a speech to the UN Security Council about how it was the USA bombing those pipes. German media, claiming that it was Ukrainian sailors with a snorkel and explosives never made sense.
https://youtu.be/qXoZBn1hgpo?si=OclSd45U1lfCfdeU
I have a hard time believing a steel pipe flooded with seawater is going to stay viable for long. If they want ti save it they need to repair it, purge it, and flood it with a zero o2 gas.
How much repair does it need?
Three pipes are damaged, and according to one estimate, it will take 3–5 months to repair each. Such damage was anticipated when NS2 was planned, as there are still many WWII bombs in that area of the Baltic Sea
EDIT: Three segments are damaged, not three pipes.
Those blasts gave a whole new meaning to the term "pipe bomb"...
The huge problem arising from that task is the inner coating of the pipes. Very sensitive to saltwater and at the same time most probably impossible to apply in the given circumstances. Hightech Process in the production plant.
I think you were right first time - 3 pipes.
👍