This is a really sharp breakdown of how the Israel-Iran conflict threatens to exacerbate Europe’s energy vulnerabilities — especially through the Strait of Hormuz choke point. The piece nails the complex interplay between geopolitics, energy markets, and financial speculation that can rapidly magnify risk far beyond the immediate warzone.
What’s next? After the US has supposedly destroyed Iranian Nuclear infrastructure is the conflict going to subside or escalate? European energy policies that continue to “ sanction” the “bad guys” and ban Russian gas will never work. Sanctions always have undesired consequences and dwindling industrial production because of expensive LNG imports doesn’t seem like a solution?
Funny, it wasn't that long ago that President Trump, in his first term, told the Germans they were making a huge mistake in relying completely on Russian gas with NordStream 2. They literally laughed at him.
Great explanation of why he was so right and all of Europe is paying the piper for their hubris.
And I don't think the Strait will be closed. but it doesn't matter, as you point out, the risk for European energy is extremely high and policy makers there have proven to be highly incompetent.
subsidies for LNG might make gas feel cheaper, but that price delta is made up elsewhere and with interest.
As usual, superb writing.
Thank you! Yes, you can squeeze a pimple, but it’ll always pop up somewhere else.
Germany's energy suicide (energiewende) is their worst policy decision since the 1940s.
Hard to disagree with that.
This is a really sharp breakdown of how the Israel-Iran conflict threatens to exacerbate Europe’s energy vulnerabilities — especially through the Strait of Hormuz choke point. The piece nails the complex interplay between geopolitics, energy markets, and financial speculation that can rapidly magnify risk far beyond the immediate warzone.
Sanctions entrench bad regimes, and make life miserable for the citizens of those regimes.
Outside enemies make for excellent political glue.
What’s next? After the US has supposedly destroyed Iranian Nuclear infrastructure is the conflict going to subside or escalate? European energy policies that continue to “ sanction” the “bad guys” and ban Russian gas will never work. Sanctions always have undesired consequences and dwindling industrial production because of expensive LNG imports doesn’t seem like a solution?
At this rate, the EU is sanctioning itself out of existence
Sanctions rarely work as intended. There is a black market for pretty much everything product or service if there is demand for it.
Well written piece. Thanks!
Thank you for reading!
Lol not our problem.
Also probably not a problem at all , cuz “could.”.
Funny, it wasn't that long ago that President Trump, in his first term, told the Germans they were making a huge mistake in relying completely on Russian gas with NordStream 2. They literally laughed at him.
Great explanation of why he was so right and all of Europe is paying the piper for their hubris.
And I don't think the Strait will be closed. but it doesn't matter, as you point out, the risk for European energy is extremely high and policy makers there have proven to be highly incompetent.